Archive for August, 2013

Testing your feed lets you know what you are really feeding. An updated list of labs offering mycotoxin testing is now available on the OMAF website.

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August 14, 2013 MarketView

aug 14 chart

Impacts on the Current Future’s Market Prices for Corn and Soybeans:

  • Slightly tighter new crop supplies due to reduced new crop yields were reported in the USDA Supply & Demand Report which were below pre-report expectations.
  • Weather
  • Export sales

aug 14 graph

Some highlights from the Ag Canada Report Outlook for Principal Field Crops released on August 13, 2013

In general World grain prices for the crop year 2013-14 are expected to decline due to increased production being supported by normal to above-normal growing conditions across the major grain producing countries. In Canada, the grain and oilseed prices are forecasted to average 10 to 20 percent lower than 2012-13 due to lower international prices. Canadian prices may receive some offsetting support from a weaker Canadian dollar.


  • The 2012-13, domestic crush is expected to rise to 8 year highs, exports are expected to set a new record and Chatham track prices are forecasted to average $533/tonne ($14.50/bushel)
  • The 2013-14, planted area in Canada is estimated at a record 1.86 million hectares. This makes soybeans the 5th largest crop by area in Canada. The forecasted Chatham average soybean price is $420-460/tonne ($11.40 to $12.50 per bushel)
  • World soybean production is forecasted to rise based on an expected record production in the United States, Brazil and Argentina (289 million tonnes, up from 285 million tonnes). World soybean carry-out stocks are forecast at a record 74 million tonnes which gives a stocks-to-use ratio of 21% for 2013-204 versus 19% for the 2012-13 crop year.


  • For 2012-13, Canadian corn exports are forecasted to increase to 1.2 million tonnes due to tight supplies in the U.S. and a very wide Ontario corn basis. The nearby Chatham in-store elevator price was record high for the past crop year because of steady total domestic use and strong US corn futures prices.
  • The forecasted 2013-14, seeded area in Canada is for an increase of 3% from the previous record of 2012-13. The forecasted production is up 1% to 13.2 million tonnes based on the larger area and the return to average yields. Total supply is forecasted to increase 2%, total domestic use is forecasted to increase by 1%, exports are forecasted to decrease due to a recovery in U.S. corn production and lower world prices and the carryout stocks are forecast to increase to a new record of 2.4 million tonnes. With the potentially larger North American and world corn crop for 2013, the Chatham in-store elevator price is forecasted to decrease ($4.40 to $5.20 per bushel).

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for information only and is not intended as advice

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July 31, 2013
July 31, 2013 corn prices

Focus On Corn:
• As shown in the above chart there is quite a difference between both the old and new corn crop prices this year (2013) compared to a year ago (2012).
• As the market place reacted to the dry weather impacts last year in June, corn prices increased significantly.
• This year with moisture in the spring and 63% of the corn crop in good/excellent condition (about average but significantly better than the 24% rating last year), the current anticipation is for an increased corn harvest this fall to replenish corn stocks.
• Old crop corn prices remain above the new crop corn prices ($5.81 versus $4.08) but this gap will eventually close between now and harvest.
• The graph below comparing the trend of daily new crop corn prices this year to last year shows the impact of weather on the markets and the challenges of making marketing decisions.

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for information only and is not intended as advice

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The July 2013 Swine Budgets are now available on the OMAF and MRA website – July 2013 Swine Budget

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