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United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2015 was 65.9 million head. This was up 7 percent from
March 1, 2014, but down slightly from December 1, 2014. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was up 2 percent from last year, and up 1 percent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 60.0 million head, was up 8 percent from last year, but down slightly from last quarter.

For the complete report go to
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/HogsPigs/HogsPigs-03-27-2015.pdf

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Visit the OMAFRA website for the February Swine Budget.

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The following is an article posted on Farmscape.com

Hog Producers Advised to Protect Themselves by Forward Pricing

Tyler Fulton – h@ms Marketing Services

Farmscape for March 6, 2015

The director of Risk Management with h@ms Marketing Services is advising pork producers to protect themselves from anticipated drops in the value of live hogs by forward pricing a portion of their production.
A combination of higher U.S. slaughter numbers and lower than expected losses from PED has resulted in a steady decline in live hog prices since they reached record levels last August.
Tyler Fulton, the director of risk management with h@ms Marketing Services, says, the impact of PED on the hog supply has been much more moderate this winter than in the winters of 2013 and 2014.

Clip-Tyler Fulton-h@ms Marketing Services:
I think producers should really be considering taking some price protection right straight through the summer time frame but in particular probably focus more on the fall and early winter months.
Right now those prices represent quite reasonable value.
They’re running at a fairly average level, an average discount to what the summer highs are currently offered at but yet we have a lot of fundamentals that could really put a lot of price pressure in those back time frames.
So relative to the potential of significant drops in prices for the third and fourth quarter, I think forward prices that are offered right now are generally pretty good value.
As far as the summer months go I think we’re going to continue to see a really choppy market, really volatile, really no obvious kind of seasonal moves.
We’ll just see higher and lower, big price swings from one week to the next, and so consequently, I think it does make some sense to price a portion of their summer production as well.

Fulton says the USDA’s March Hogs and Pigs report will provide some insight as to how significantly the U.S. herd has grown and an indication of where we can expect prices to be moving forward.
For Farmscape.Ca, I’m Bruce Cochrane.

       *Farmscape is a presentation of Sask Pork and Manitoba Pork Council

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Hog Market Price Trend Report

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Hog Price Trend Report

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OMAFRA has posted the December Swine Budgets. pen of pigs playing with toySomething to chew on.

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Best wishes to John Bancroft, who is retiring after more than 33 years with the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. We are really going to miss you!

John Bancroft

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• The Ontario Base Market Hog Price is averaging $182.33ckg, 100 index, up by $0.55/ckg from last week’s average due to a weaker Canadian dollar which is down 0.48 cents to 87.96 cents. The CME Constructed weekly average price of US$88.60/cwt. is down US$0.21/cwt. from last week.
• The USDA Pork Cut-out Value is averaging US$92.68/cwt. which is down US$0.20/cwt. from last week’s average with loins, bellies and ribs up and the other 3 primals down.
• US slaughter has averaged 2,152,243 the last three weeks but remains 4.3% below last year for the same weeks. Dressed weights moved to a 212 average which is 2 pounds above the same week last year.
• Ontario market hog sales year to date continue to be up 2.5% over last year. First quarter sales were up 2%, second quarter up 5% and third quarter is up 2.8%. Fourth quarter sales to-date are slightly under with last year. The weekly average dressed weight continues to be above 102 kg.
• Current daily movement in the pork cut-out, narrower packer margins, cash price and nearby futures along with the expected seasonal trends, indicate next week’s price movement will be sideways.

Daily Prices for Wednesday December 3
• Ontario Base Market Hog Price – C$182.68ckg, 100 index
• CME Constructed Price – US$88.74/cwt.
• Noon-Hour Bank of Canada Canadian Dollar value – 87.93 cents

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  • The Ontario Base Market Hog Price is averaging $181.02/ckg, 100 index, down slightly by $0.28/ckg from last week’s average due to a stronger Canadian dollar which is up 0.34 cents to 88.81 cents. The CME Constructed weekly average price of US$88.82/cwt. is up US$0.20/cwt. from last week.
  • The USDA Pork Cut-out Value is averaging US$92.79/cwt. which is down US$1.09/cwt. from last week’s average with loins, picnics and ribs up and the other 3 primals down.
  • US slaughter has averaged 2,226,021 the last three weeks but remains 4.3% below last year for the same weeks. Dressed weights moved to a 212 average which is 3 pounds above the same week last year.
  • Ontario market hog sales year to date continue to be up 2.7% over last year. First quarter sales were up 2%, second quarter up 5% and third quarter is up 2.8%. Dressed weights for the last 3 reported weeks have averaged 102.5 kg.
  • Current daily movement in the pork cut-out, narrower packer margins, cash price and nearby futures along with the expected seasonal trends, indicate next week’s price movement will be sideways.

Today’s Daily Prices are: (Wednesday)

  • Ontario Base Market Hog Price – C$180.99ckg, 100 index
  • CME Constructed Price – US$88.82/cwt.
  • Noon-Hour Bank of Canada Canadian Dollar value – 89 cents

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The income shown for the market pig in the recently posted October 2014 OMAFRA Swine budget was $244.45, up over $52.00 from the October 2013 Swine Budget. The difference was realized through an increased market pig base price (up $40/ckg, 100 index) and a heavier dressed carcass weight (up 3.54 kg). The increased market hog income along with a decreased farrow to finish feed cost (down $7.83 per market pig) led to a net return improvement of over $60 per market hog from October 2013. For more information see the 2014 October Monthly Swine Budget on the OMAFRA website:

http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/livestock/swine/facts/info-b-oct2014.pdf

You can subscribe to receive the monthly budgets (and the bimonthly Pork News and Views newsletter) by email here:

http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/subscribe/index.html

 

 

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